The opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of Liberal America.
I was certain that I was right that the LA Times/USC Presidential poll was horribly ill thought. They had President-Elect Trump ahead for months in the “who are you voting for” category, even though former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was way ahead in in their same poll in the “who do you think will win” category.
I traded emails with an LA Times political editor who sent me the link to the base methodology.
In short, an example of five Trump voters and five Clinton voters, they weighted the results with two questions:
- How certain are you to vote for your candidate?
- How certain are you to vote?
So, since it was obvious (to me) that Trump supporters were literally rabid, five voters with a 100 percent certainty in each of the two questions would yield:
5 x 100% x 100% = 5
Whereas, for Clinton, in fine Democratic tradition, and influenced by 20 years of unproven allegations, her supporters were 80 percent likely to vote for her, and 75 percent likely to vote, yielding:
5 x 80% x 75% = 3
I’m making up the exact number but the theory is sound, according to the Understanding America Study.
In my conversation with the LA Times politics editor, I accused them of ignoring the “zealot effect” that was “obviously” skewing their poll.
Clinton was much farther ahead of Trump in the “who do you think will win?” category (10 to 15 percent) than Trump was ahead of her in the “who are you voting for?” category (3 to 5 five percent).
So, clearly even many Trump voters after surveying the same 2,000 people for the entire election regularly, thought their candidate would lose.
Fast Forward To The Election
Most voting analysis shows that Democrats simply did not vote in the numbers they needed to in order to win; the lowest turnout since 1996.
Compare that with the high point of 2008 that swept President Barack Obama into office along with Democratic control of the Senate and the House.
Then, look what happened in the 2010 mid-terms, when people apparently were too busy congratulating themselves to vote, and the organized Republican Party reversed those gains at the state and national level.
I offered to serve myself a crow dinner to the political editor with whom I corresponded, and all this reminded me that we are often ourselves the problem, which is something Walt Kelly knew 45 years ago.
The best piece I have seen on the disaster of the 2010 mid-terms was by Samantha Bee. You can watch it here:
Featured Image: Screenshot Via Fox 11.
