A former conservative and current university professor in political philosophy decided to take a look at the potential electoral outcomes based on his experience to see who would be the better Democratic candidate to go up against the Republicans.

This professor stated that he didn’t think it mattered who the Republicans nominated; that no matter which candidate they chose, it will likely only motivate specific groups, not generally affecting the overall election turnout.

In his opinion though, the true test comes with who the Democratic party chooses to nominate. He does provide the disclaimer that he is not a leading expert on elections but that he “does study politics for a living” and has “followed US politics very closely for over 30 years.” Using his knowledge from that span of time and his assessment of the electoral college, here are the two electoral turnouts he predicts:

ELECTORAL COLLEGE FOR HILLARY CLINTON VS. REPUBLICANS

Republicans-vs-Hillary-Electoral-Map

 

ELECTORAL COLLEGE FOR BERNIE SANDERS VS. REPUBLICANS

Republicans-vs-Bernie-Electoral-Map

 

As you can see from these two calculations, the difference between the Republicans winning and the Democrats winning is:

Bernie Sanders.

You may look at this and question how nominating Sanders could create that much of a swing in election results over the Republicans.

As the author of this analysis points out, many of the states in play could swing on as little as a 5 percent difference in voter turnout.

Further, “Bernie is the only candidate offering change and whether you like his Progressive ideas or not, Bernie is clearly not an Establishment, status quo candidate.” Whereas, “Hillary is The Establishment status-quo candidate in an election cycle where a significant portion of the American electorate is demanding change.

One of the biggest ways Sanders could swing that 5 percent or more would be if the Millennials turned out in force for him, as they seem to be doing in support already. As of this year, Millennials will overtake the Baby Boomers as the largest generation, with the vast majority of them being of voting age. Further, Sanders’ support for issues such as free tuition at public colleges and universities is going to resonate far more with individuals who are either starting college or have recently left it, than those in older generations.

Now, no algorithm or statistical analysis can truly predict an election with 100 percent accuracy. As with any election, it all depends on who actually shows up on election day. But the ability of Sanders to motivate voters in a way that Hillary cannot could be the deciding factor on whether the Republicans win or lose the White House in 2016.

 

Featured image via Flickr. Images of electoral college results both from here. All images used are available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license.

 

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