We are only three months away from the presidential election. Every day, you go on the news and you are seeing results from every poll imaginable. It can be overwhelming trying to weed out the false data from the real data.
This can be problematic. It is hard to find voters who will actually vote in the election for the candidate. They may say that they are going to, but that is not always the case. The polls also ask about political involvement and voting history.
When asking for the candidate the person will choose there are a few questions the polls should be asking:
- Both the presidential and vice presidential candidates are included in the questions.
- The party affiliation of each ticket is mentioned explicitly.
- In states where Gary Johnson and/or Jill Stein were on the ballot, they and their running mates are included in the choices read to respondents. (Other minor party candidates were not named in the questionnaire.)
- The order of presentation of the Democratic and Republican tickets is randomized so that some respondents hear the Democratic ticket first and others hear the Republican ticket first. The Johnson and Stein tickets always follow the major party candidates. In states where both are on the ballot; they are also randomized.
When looking to see how your favorite candidate is doing, look at multiple polls to get a better idea. Figuring out the polling methodology is also helpful. If the pollster doesn’t give any information about how the survey was conducted, don’t pay attention to the polls at all.
Look at the date it was conducted and look for information about the sample size and make-up of the sample (i.e. How many women and men, etc.). Also, look at which organization published the poll; sometimes, these companies can be biased.
There are a few major design flaws in a poll that you need to watch out for:
- Look at the makeup of the sample. Make sure the sample size isn’t biased toward any one political affiliation or gender or age or many other things.
- Look at what questions were asked and how they were worded. Which choice did they put first? The structure of the questions can make someone biased.
- Look at what specific words were used. Using euphemisms in place of any controversial subjects can make the poll seem biased.
- The number or questions and order of the questions is important. If they ask too many questions, the participant may have trouble sticking to their guns.
Featured image via Twitter.
