Of the many gerrymandered congressional maps produced by Republican-controlled state legislatures after the 2010 census, one of the worst came from Pennsylvania.
By any standard, Pennsylvania is a Democratic-leaning swing state. At the time of the 2010 elections, it had not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. But that didn’t matter when the Republicans used their large majorities in the state legislature to churn out a map intended to elect 13 Republicans and five Democrats.
Well, that gerrymander is now officially dead. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court tossed out that map in January and imposed a map of its own a month later. The Republican leadership in the state legislature appealed to the federal Supreme Court. But the federal Supremes refused to hear it, meaning the new map is now etched in stone.
The saga began on January 21, when the state supreme court issued a 5-2 ruling that declared the map drawn by the GOP six years earlier was a blatant gerrymander. As such, it “clearly, plainly, and palpably” violated the state constitution.
Look at the old map here.
One district winds its way from the suburbs of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre all the way to the Harrisburg suburbs. Two districts in the Philadelphia suburbs and a Lehigh Valley-based district extend tendrils into crimson-red south-central Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the five Democratic-leaning districts have the appearance of squashed blintzes.
The intent was obvious–pack as many Democrats in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre into as few districts as possible, while throwing just enough heavily Republican areas into the nearby districts to keep them Republican. In the process, the Republicans created a map with no rational basis–and to the court’s mind, trampled on voters’ rights to the point that it was unconstitutional.
The court told the legislature to draw a new map by February 15, or it would impose a map of its own. Significantly, since the ruling was based solely on state law, not federal law, there were very few remedies available to the GOP.
Not that the Republicans–who themselves benefited from a state legislative map that heavily overrepresents the infamous “Republican T” in central Pennsylvania–didn’t try. They not only refused to craft a new map, but made noises about appealing to the federal Supreme Court. More ominously, some of them started making noises about impeaching the five judges who had the insolence to throw out their handiwork.
That talk grew louder on February 22, when the state supreme court rolled out a map of its own. On paper, it produces a nearly perfectly balanced map. Look at the new map here.
To see how these districts would have voted in 2016, check out Daily Kos’ database here. For comparison, here’s how these districts voted under the old lines. One quibble–Daily Kos reckons the new 2nd as the successor to Brendan Boyle’s old Main Line/northeast Philadelphia 13th. In truth, though, as Cohn noted, while Boyle’s home is now in the 2nd, that district is more the successor of the old 1st, whose Democratic incumbent, Bob Brady, is retiring. The new Main Line-based 4th is more the successor of the 13th.
The new map is much cleaner, with more compact districts. According to Nate Cohn of The New York Times’ Upshot, it was obvious that the court was aiming at partisan balance in a state where Democrats typically run it up in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and (in most years) Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, while Republicans usually don’t waste as many votes in the “T.”
Republicans in both Harrisburg and Washington threw a tantrum. Congressman Ryan Costello, who represents the 6th District anchored in Philadelphia’s outer suburbs, openly called for the justices to be impeached. Senator Pat Toomey thought that impeachment was at least worth considering.
It’s easy to see why Costello was pitching a fit. The two-term Republican previously represented a district stretching from the Philadelphia suburbs to deep-red Lebanon, which hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since 1936. The new map handed him a more compact district comprising all of Chester County and the more Democratic portions of Berks County, near Reading.
Had this district existed in 2016, Hillary Clinton would have won it 52-43; she won it 48-47 under the current lines. In a colossal understatement, Cohn believes that Costello is “in very serious trouble” under this new map, and openly wondered if he’d even run again.
Cohn believes this is one of two Republican-held districts that are all but certain to flip under this new map. The other is the 5th District south of Philadelphia. That district was previously the 7th, represented by Pat Meehan, who was forced to retire after settling a sexual harassment claim on taxpayers’ dime. The district was all but certain to flip in any event under the old lines, with the heavily Democratic areas closer to Philadelphia canceling out the more Republican portions in Pennsylvania Dutch Country. The new, more compact 5th, however, would have gone for Hillary by a punishing 63-34 margin, which would have been her third-best showing in the state.
Democrats also have a fighting chance of flipping at least two other districts. The Lehigh Valley-based 15th District, represented by retiring five-term Republican Charlie Dent, loses its tendril to Lebanon and becomes the 7th District–in the process, going from a district Trump won 52-44 to one Hillary would have won 48-47. However, John Morganelli, the district attorney for Northampton County–home to Easton and Bethlehem–is running here, and his presence combined with the friendlier lines likely gives the Democrats the advantage.
The suspense ended with two court decisions on Monday. Watch coverage from KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh here.
Eight Republican congressmen and two Republican state senators appealed the decision to a three-judge federal panel. One of them was Keith Rothfus, who faced the prospect of a tooth-and-nail fight for reelection if this map stood. His old 12th District in Pittsburgh’s suburbs was about to lose its long arm to Johnstown and become the more compact 17th District.
In the process, the home of Conor Lamb, the all-but-certain winner in the special election for the old 18th District, was drawn into the new 17th. If the new map held, Rothfus would have gone from sitting in a district that Trump won 59-38 to one Trump only won 49-47. According to Cohn, the new 17th voted for Democrats downballot. Meanwhile, the old 18th becomes the 14th, and is even more Republican than before–one of the few “wins” for the GOP in this map.
However, the panel threw the suit out, finding that the lawmakers lacked standing to sue. A few hours later, the federal Supreme Court issued a one-sentence statement denying cert to state house speaker Mike Turzai and state senate president pro tem Joe Scarnati’s request to intervene in the matter.
In the matter of just a few hours, the Democrats may have just been handed two congressional seats on a platter, have a distinct advantage in a third, and no worse than a 50-50 chance at winning a fourth. So in the best-case scenario, a delegation with 12 Republicans and six Democrats becomes one with nine Democrats and nine Republicans.
And all because the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decided that voters should choose their representatives, and not the other way around.
