We’ve known for some time that if Donald Trump succeeds in his bid to buy the Republican nomination, he will have his head handed to him in November. However, a recent poll illustrates just how much trouble the GOP could be in with the Donald as its standardbearer. Apparently with America’s biggest gaslighter atop the ballot, things could get, shall we say, mighty interesting in what is normally one of the GOP’s best states–Mississippi.
On Tuesday afternoon, Mason-Dixon Polling detonated a bombshell. Trump takes 46 percent support in the Magnolia State to Hillary’s 43 percent–within the poll’s four-percent margin of error. This is mainly due to Hillary defeating Trump among women, 47 percent to 40 percent. Hillary manages to peel off 15 percent of Republican women, which is simply staggering in what is arguably the most racially polarized state in the nation. In most elections, Republicans typically win well over 80 percent of the white vote, while Democrats tally more than 90 percent of the black vote. No doubt these numbers sent a lot of Republican eyebrows into hairlines. If Mississippi is even potentially competitive with Trump as the nominee, there has been a 40-state Democratic landslide.
Mason-Dixon also examined a potential three-way race between Hillary, Trump, and a third party conservative. The result? A flat-footed tie, with both major candidates taking 39 percent of the vote and a generic third party candidate taking 13 percent. No word on how Trump would do if he carries through on his threat to bolt and run as an independent if he doesn’t get the nomination.
In contrast, with either Ted Cruz or John Kasich atop the ballot, Mississippi reverts to its usual status as a crimson-red state. Cruz wins 51 percent to Hillary’s 40 percent. That’s a lot lower than I expected given how fundified the Mississippi GOP has become. I thought that Mississippi fundies would flock to one of their own like moths to a flame. Kasich takes 52 percent to Hillary’s 37 percent. Both Cruz and Kasich win over 80 percent of the white vote to Trump’s 77 percent. This makes the contrast with Trump’s numbers even starker.
To illustrate just how staggering this is, a little historical context is in order. Among states in the Deep South, Mississippi has undergone one of the most dramatic shifts from blue to red; some counties haven’t supported the official Democratic candidate for president since Adlai Stevenson III in 1956. Since Barry Goldwater won an unheard-of 87 percent of Mississippi’s vote in 1964, the Democrats have only seriously contested the state twice. The one time they won it was in 1980, and even then Jimmy Carter won it by a paper-thin 1.9 percent margin. He lost it by 11,000 votes in 1980, and since then Mississippi has been an automatic deposit in the GOP’s bank account.
Granted, Mississippi isn’t all that significant electorally; it only has six electoral votes. But it is very significant politically. Simply put, Mississippi should not even be in the discussion as a potential target for Democrats even at this early stage in the campaign. By comparison, imagine if a poll at this stage showed Republicans even within shouting distance in Maryland at this point. Simply put, this poll is the equivalent of a flashing engine light for the GOP.
