Now that Senator Sanders has knocked down six states in a row it’s time to seriously consider the idea that he can come away with this election.
Of the states he has recently won which had polling data available via RealClearPolitics.com, he had an average lead in the most recent polls prior to voting of only 1.5 points. He won those same states by an average margin of 48.5 points. That’s a 47 point difference. The reason I bring this up is because now that he has built such strong momentum, the question is: “Can he carry it into New York and beyond?”
Based on The New York Times interactive Delegate Tracker, Bernie will need to secure 58% of the remaining delegates (or a 16 pt average victory margin) in order to overcome Hillary and be the front-runner heading into the Democratic National Convention.
If we look at the polls for the remaining states that have data available on RealClearPolitics.com it doesn’t look good for Sanders:
Not only does Sanders have to beat Clinton by an average of 16 points in each remaining state, he has to overcome an average “Current Polls to Victory Margin” difference of 27 points! That’s no easy task until you consider what I mentioned earlier: He won his most recent states while outperforming the polls by an average of 47 points.
You see, Bernie Sanders’s problem is not an issues problem or an electability problem, it is a publicity problem. The places where he has been able to get his message out are the places where he has been successful. Even after winning 6 states in a row he is still facing headlines such as:
“Hillary Clinton Questions Whether Bernie Sanders Is a Democrat: ‘I’m Not Even Sure He Is One'”
or
“Bernie Sanders spent $2.4 million to win Wisconsin, only came out a few delegates ahead”
The one time he received positive praise from the media was when he scored the major upset in Michigan. He was trailing in the latest poll to Hillary by 27 points and proceeded to pull out a 2 point victory and a 29 point swing. He has been doing this all campaign long, but only receives substantial media attention when it is a high delegate count state. Speaking of high delegate count states, we have New York up on deck.
Throw in Bernie’s ability to destroy poll after poll and I think we have a perfectly tee’d up opportunity for Senator Sanders to score another big-ticket upset. This will provide the positive press he needs to carry him the rest of the way to the General Election.
Featured Image by: Theo Stroomer/Getty Images
