One of my favorite sites (other than Liberal America, of course) is The Upshot, presented by the New York Times. It’s an interactive site that allows one to look at different Electoral College scenarios, as well as see how states historically vote.
It’s Looking Good Right Now
As of this writing, The Upshot gives Hillary Clinton an 83-percent chance of winning the presidency.
According to the Times, however,
“A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that a Major League Baseball player will strike out.”
A Trump presidency might be a long shot, but I just watched one of my favorite players strike out as I was writing this, so it could happen.
The Donald’s Downward Spiral
The page also updates the candidates’ chances of winning daily, both in image format (as shown above) and in a graph.
The Donald has been on a steep downward trajectory since the conclusion of the DNC, and the Khan debacle sunk him even further.
Check Out The Interactive Map
One of the most interesting facets of The Upshot is the interactive map at the bottom that allows one to see what happens if certain key states vote red or blue. The map works by awarding those states that are pretty safely Democrat or Republican to Clinton and Trump, respectively, and then the reader can choose different scenarios for the ten swing states to see the “paths to victory” for each.
Without choosing any swing states, here is how the electoral map stands as of August 7, 2016:
As always, Florida is key. Those of us old enough to remember the debacle of 2000 know just how big a player Florida is in presidential elections. The demographics of the state have changed somewhat significantly since then, though. For one, there are a lot fewer white, non-Hispanic voters in Florida now than there were 16 years ago. This is generally good news for Democrats.
In a related piece, the New York Times reports,
“Other changes have also helped Democrats. Back in 2000, the state’s Hispanic voters, disproportionately Cuban-Americans, leaned Republican. The state’s Hispanic vote now clearly leans Democratic. The newest generation of Cuban voters is far more Democratic than earlier generations, who came of age in the Cold War.”
However, if we’re going on the same probability of Major League Baseball players striking out, as mentioned earlier, I’ve seen that happen now twice since I started writing.
What does that mean? Go vote in November, and vote blue.
Featured Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore via Flickr/CC
