Yes, it has all come down to this, and tonight we find out who will be the 45th President of the United States. How early will we know the dynamics of the race? Here’s are some indicators to watch for as the first polls close at 7 p.m. EST:
Exit Polls
The first exit poll data will start to trickle in around 5 p.m. Look for the demographic breakdowns of who voted and in what percentage of the total electoral sample. Pay special attention to the rate of voting by African-Americans and Hispanics. Latino voters may well wind up being the most important sector of the electorate in 2016 and provide the margin of victory Clinton is seeking, which would place her north of 320 electoral votes. This is especially true in battleground states such as Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.
But a word of warning: Exit polls can be wrong, so don’t put too much stock in them.
Early Battleground States
Polls close in Virginia and New Hampshire at 7 p.m., followed by North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 p.m. Most of Florida will close at 7 p.m., but the small portion of the Panhandle on Central time closes at 8 p.m., along with Pennsylvania.
If Trump loses both Florida and North Carolina, game over. Even if he loses Florida and wins North Carolina, the pathway for victory narrows to a pinpoint. Florida, as it has been so often in the past, is one of the main keys to the White House.
The Midwest
If Trump manages to pull out victories in Florida and North Carolina, he will then be looking at the Midwest and hoping he can win Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. Minnesota and Wisconsin appear out of reach, and a GOP nominee has not won Michigan since 1988, when Bush beat Dukakis. It doesn’t appear to be trending to Trump, either, so his rhetoric about it being “in play” seems farfetched.
Can’t Get There From Here
The map is balanced against Trump. Clinton starts the night with 240-260 electoral votes virtually guaranteed. That means she merely has to accumulate 10-30 more in order to be the winner with the required 270.
Trump, on the other hand, has to run the table and win every state Romney won in 2012 while also flipping a blue state or two. Given the toxic nature of his personality, that seems very unlikely.
Could we know who has won by 9 p.m.? Yes, and the chances are good we’ll know even earlier.
h/t The Hill
Featured Image Via Fox 11
