Can An October Surprise Hand Trump The White House? Maybe.

Donald Trump’s favorability rating, having plummeted below even Barry Goldwater’s 1956 17-point record, is a source of real concern. For the GOP faithful that is.

Complacency, however, does not seem to have infected the Clinton camp. Numerous attacks on Hilary Clinton — over Benghazi, her emails, even her personal life — have all taken their toll. Clinton’s approval rating is neck-and-neck with John Kerry’s abysmal 2004 score. Better than Trump’s by a long margin, but still, a poor show and October is set to become a pivotal month for both candidates.

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Sections Of GOP Give Up On 2016 Election

Whilst some in the Republican Party seem to have given up on 2016, others are hoping for a miracle, for a guardian angel to swoop down and save the day. Such is their desperation that pretty much anyone is a potential candidate for the job. Even an enemy. Even the man Bill O Reilly labeled a “sleaze ball traitor.”

Yes, even WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange.

Assange, who in March released 30,322 emails and email attachments sent to and from Hillary Clinton’s private email server, has already confirmed that more emails will be released. Speaking to Russia Today, he made a number of as of yet unsubstantiated claims including that:

 “The US government at the times when Hillary Clinton was in charge of the foreign policy did use Libya as a conduit to get arms to jihadists in Syria. That is well-established not just by a range of raw materials but also by … investigative reporters in the US, some of which were even published in The New York Times.”

Allegations Without Immediate Substance

The WikiLeaks editor-in-chief was also quick to allude to alleged ties between multinational corporation Le Farge, The Clinton Foundation, and ISIS. Assange claimed he had yet to release more than 350 emails that revealed that Le Farge:

“Paid ISIS money, taxes for their operations (and) in certain areas, were engaged in a variety of business deals with ISIS.”

Alleged links to the Clinton Foundation were less clear, with Assange saying only that:

 “Money from La Farge in 2015 and 2016 went to Hillary Clinton foundation. There is actually a long-term relationship between La Farge and Clinton; she was a member of the board.”

La Farge Backed The GOP Even More Heavily

That La Farge throws money at the political process is, however, hardly news. In a 2004 sustainability report, they listed highways and the enactment of an energy bill as their main lobbying activity. A quick check on Open Secrets reveals that since 1990, they have donated $295,120 to the Democratic Party and $370,575 to the Republicans.

Aside from dismissing claims that Russia was behind the hacking attacks in the first place, Assange had very little else of import to say on the matter. A reiteration of Clinton’s links to Saudi Arabia was made, then followed by a direct accusation that after approving the sale of 20 percent of the US-Iranian reprocessing rights to a Russian company:

“A large donation was made by those Russian interests to the Clinton foundation.”

A direct link between these two events was not expounded on.

The Real Threat

Still, the threat of an October surprise set to influence or perhaps even derail the election cannot be entirely discounted. Indeed, these emails are one of the few curve-balls left that could hand the White House to Trump. Clinton’s best defense is to emphasize the fact that such leaks are almost by default an attack on U.S. sovereignty.

Unfortunately, according to current and former officials, timing might not be on her side. Preparing a declassified explanation of an attack takes weeks, the imposition of sanctions, and weeks more. Prosecutions take years. At any rate, although President Barrack Obama was quick to impose sanctions on North Korea after its 2014 cyber-attack on Sony Pictures, no official public reprisal has been issued against Russia.

The Real Story

Russia responded to accusations that it hacked Democratic Party emails by labeling the idea absurd. Of course, if a connection is made, Clinton’s emails — damning, embarrassing, or otherwise — will have to take a backseat. The lead story will no doubt be the attempted subversion on the democratic process by a foreign power. A foreign power invited to do so by the Republican nominee himself. That kind of story should eclipse all else.

Featured Image Via Wikimedia

I'm a full- time, somewhat unwilling resident of the planet Earth. I studied journalism at Murdoch University in West Australia and moved back to the UK where I taught politics and studied for a PhD. I've written a number of books on political philosophy that are mostly of interest to scholars. I'm also a seasoned travel writer so I get to stay in fancy hotels for free. I have a pet Lizard called Rousseau. We have only the most cursory of respect for one another.