For the first time since Donald Trump entered the 2016 Republican primary, he’s not leading polls in the key Iowa Caucus. The latest numbers show Ben Carson taking the lead with 28 percent to Trump’s 20 percent. This is nearly a complete reversal from the previous poll on September 11, which showed Trump at 27 and Carson at 21. CBS describes the rest of the results as follows:
“Marco Rubio is in third, with 13 percent, followed by Ted Cruz, who attracted 10 percent support. Rand Paul has six percent and Jeb Bush is tied with Carly Fiorina – both have five percent.“
Ted Cruz continues to hang around, and Rand Paul is surprisingly strong in Iowa despite being nearly invisible in national polls. However, the most surprising result has to be Jeb Bush at the very bottom, tied with the cratering Carly Fiorina. Iowa Caucus voters must be responding positively to Trump’s repeated and vicious attacks on Jeb for his low-energy, among other things.
While Carson’s superiority among evangelical voters has been obvious, this poll saw a different key divide for Carson that’s led to him gaining such a huge lead.
“Carson’s strength in this poll lies in his appeal to women, who chose Carson over Trump, 33 – 13 percent. Among men, the two are virtually tied, with 25 percent for Carson, compared to 24 percent for Trump.”
It appears that Carson has picked up most of the female support that was shed by Carly Fiorina. This could be an important voting bloc to watch leading into the next Republican debate. How Trump interacts with Fiorina, if at all, will be important to his standing in the all-important first Iowa Caucus.
Trump is still comfortably ahead by double digits in national polls, so it’s a little early to hit the panic button. We’ll see over the coming weeks how Trump responds to his first setback and sign of adversity to the campaign. He’ll likely focus on the Massachusetts primary poll in which he has a 34-point lead on Ben Carson.
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