As both major political parties come closer to naming their Presidential candidates, social media continues to play a primary role in both monitoring and shaping the thought patterns of the American public.
To watch most mainstream news outlets is to think that Hillary Clinton has all but finished Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary; however, this is not the story that Facebook or Twitter tells. On the Republican side, Donald Trump, who has effectively been running for President ever since Twitter was founded in 2006, continues to use social media to remain the focal point of all debate.
Translating Social Media
Sanders was able to pull off Michigan unexpectedly, and many say thanks to Twitter bringing out just enough voters. Twitter goes berzerk for Bernie after every debate, yet he still trails Hillary in delegates. On the post-Obama Democratic side, does social media really translate into votes?
The answer lies in the demographics using social media versus the demographics that actually vote. Not everyone who says they will vote online actually takes the time to do so, and the numbers bear this out.
According to Sprout Social, people ages 18-24 use Facebook the most, and 87% of adults aged 18-29 used Facebook. A higher percentage of adult females than males use Facebook – 77% of all adult females vs. 66% of males. Pew Research reports that this 18-29 age group is also the highest percentage of Twitter users, with 32% of Internet users between the ages of 18-29 using Twitter.
When Facebook and Twitter users come out to vote, Michigan happens. When they don’t, Arizona is the result, keeping in mind that Bernie won New Hampshire by a landslide, but Hillary won more delegates, so there is an element of pure politics undercutting the results that we may see at the end of the day.
Dominating Social Media
On the Republican side, the only entity worth mentioning on social media is Donald Trump. Senator Marco Rubio recently breathed his political last breath trying desperately to equate Trump with Obama in their ubiquitous appearances on social media while running for president. There may be some truth to what Rubio said, since that comment was the last major play that he got in mainstream media, and to get that moment, he had to talk about Trump.
Rubio, Ted Cruz, and the rest of the Republican party can’t truly get upset at Trump’s foresight. As mentioned before, Trump has been running for President on Twitter since before Twitter became Twitter, and no one else thought to do that. This race is the payoff for a decade of hard work: The website Twitter Counter shows that Trump’s account has tweeted out 31,451 messages to Rubio’s 5,425 and Cruz’s 15,350. Today, Trump dominates the Republican field using primarily Twitter, primarily because of the “genius” of simply tweeting more often.
Trump’s voters, young, uneducated white males, are definitely coming out to support him. Take what inferences you will from this constituency having more time to hang out on Twitter; suffice it to say, it is a group that is seeking political action. After his ground game mishaps early on, Trump corrected the money, put a few boots on the ground, and starting converting lurkers just like any other online business campaign. The people who are liking and retweeting Donald Trump are coming to his rallies and showing up at the polls.
The General
Our nominees are all but locked in. Will social media translate into votes less readily on the Democratic side once the main catalyst for its activity has bowed out? Will the social media activist on the Republican side retain the attention of his audience when there is no one else to dominate? Time will tell, but one thing is for sure: We have not seen the last of Facebook and Twitter politics.
Featured image via Flikr by Mark Smiciklas available under a Creative Commons license.
